Wednesday, December 11, 2013


IRAN WILL GET $20B FROM SANCTIONS RELIEF
U.S. officials admit  that they greatly underestimated the economic benefits Tehran would reap from Geneva accord.
The Iranian economy is already showing signs of growth. 

{EDITED NOTES }

Senior officials in the administration of President Barack Obama have conceded over the past few days  that the value of the economic sanctions relief to Iran could be much higher than originally stated by Washington. 
In official statements by the United States immediately after the meetings in Geneva between Iran and the six powers at the end of November it was said that the economic relief Iran would receive in exchange for signing the agreement would be relatively low – $6 billion or $7 billion.
The United States had originally intended to make do with unfreezing Iranian assets in the amount of $3 billion to $4 billion. But during negotiations in Geneva, the P5+1 countries backtracked from their opening position and approved much more significant relief in a wide variety of areas: commerce in gold, the Iranian petrochemical industry, the car industry and replacement parts for civilian aircraft. But the Americans said at the time that this would at most double the original amount.
However , the Americans now concede  that the sanctions relief are worth much more. According to security sources: “Economics is a matter of expectations. The Iranian stock exchange is already rising significantly and many countries are standing in line to renew economic ties with Iran based on what was already agreed in Geneva.” The sources mentioned China’s desire to renew contracts worth some $9 billion to develop the Iranian oil industry and the interest some German companies are showing for deals with Tehran. “In any case, it’s about 20 or 25 billion dollars. 
The interim agreement is to come into force on January 15. Until then, Iran is not restricted in terms of moving ahead on its nuclear program. Israel was surprised by the public statement by Obama at the Saban Forum in Washington late last week, that the agreements allowed Iran to continue enriching uranium. This is seen as an unnecessary concession considering that negotiations with Iran are still underway
 The administration is very concerned about the objections to the agreement in Geneva by senators and congress members on both sides of the aisle. A few prominent opponents of the agreement who are experts in foreign affairs and frequently express themselves on the Middle East have articulated doubts about the deal and have called for additional heavy sanctions on Iran if the accord falls through.
The extent of the administrations’ concern can be seen in an editorial in Tuesday's New York Times. The paper reads as if it is quoting Obama’s messages on the Middle East. The article warned against the initiative of  new legislation that would complete the very effective sanctions moves  against Iran begun a  few years ago. According to the proposal, new sanctions would be instituted if at the end of the six months set out in the interim agreement a satisfactory arrangement is not reached with the Iranians.
The Times warns that the breakthrough attained in Geneva, which it calls the most positive development in relations between the United States and Iran in 30 years, will be put at risk by the initiatives in Congress. The interim agreement is “unquestionably a good deal,” which is preferable to military action and the paper echos the warnings issued both by the White House and the Iranian government against legislation that would sabotage the agreements implementation  and "enrage the Iranians.”

Monday, December 9, 2013



Subject: A Personal Loss, and a Major Setback for the Entire Int'l Jewish Community!
Date: December 9, 2013 

From Buddy Macy ,via Ted Belman
Friends & Correspondents: 
My cousin, Eugene Narrett  professor, writer, painter, commentator and strong advocate for Israel and the Jewish People  died tragically this past Friday evening after being struck by a hit-and-run driver in Brattleboro, Vermont. Eugene was a pedestrian, having just visited an art gallery a short distance away. It was three weeks short of his 65th birthday.

Funeral services for Eugene Narrett will take place this Wednesday, December 11, at the Jewish Memorial Chapel at 841 Allwood Road in Clifton, NJ, commencing at 11a.m.  

Eugene received a PhD in English Literature from Columbia University and taught Art, Art History, History, Literature and Philosophy. He had an extraordinary knowledge and appreciation of the Classics , and had reached a scholarly level in the area of Jewish studies. In his early 20's, Eugene began educating himself about the history of ancient and modern Israel, and  he became one of the foremost authorities on the geopolitics of the Middle East, providing commentary on numerous radio programs, including Israel National Radio (many times) and the Barry Farber Show.   

Dr. Narrett held strong views about Israel, based on history, Jewish identity and the current reality. He believed in Israel's Biblical, legal and historical rights to all of the land between the Mediterranean Sea and Jordan River, and was an outspoken critic of the 1993 Oslo Accords between Israel and the Arab-"Palestinians." He would be quick to point out the deadly consequences of that failed political strategy. Many of Dr. Narrett's writings and radio commentaries may be accessed through his Israel End Times blog,

Treat and educate yourself by listening to Dr. Eugene Narrett on this edition of the Tovia Singer Show. 

Eugene, may the Almighty comfort you amongst the mourners of Zion and Jerusalem. And, may all of your hopes and dreams for Israel come to fruition in the very near future.

Buddy  Macy

P.S. 
Friends and supporters of Eugene are asked to consider giving a gift to Arutz Sheva (Israel National News) - http://www.israelnationalnews.com/ - and/or to Americans For A Safe Israel - http://www.afsi.org/ - in tribute to Eugene Narrett, of blessed memory.

Saturday, December 7, 2013




 Empowering Islam: 
‘Taqiyya’ in the White House?
By MARTIN SHERMAN     12-5-13

http://www.jpost.com/LandedPages/PrintArticle.aspx?id=334135


Was this really what well-meaning, gullible American Jews had in mind, when persuaded by Obama’s pledge that “I have Israel’s back,” they gave him their support— both at the ballot and the bank?

That great scholar of Islam, Bernard Lewis, caution[ed] that America risked being seen as harmless as an enemy and treacherous as a friend. The Obama administration seems to have raised the thought to the level of doctrine. What has hitherto been unclear is whether this was through design or incompetence.

– Mark Steyn, “Surrender in Geneva,” National Review, November 29.

These sobering sentiments expressed by Steyn, an incisive conservative columnist of Canadian origin, mirror with almost eerie accuracy those I articulated in my previous column “Will the West withstand the Obama presidency”, posted just one day earlier. In it I remarked: “the really chilling aspect of the Obama incumbency is that it is genuinely difficult to diagnose whether the abysmal results we see represent a crushing failure of his policies or a calculated success, the product of chronic ineptitude or purposeful foresight”.

Bungling stupidity cannot be ruled out’

Both pieces were written in response to the P5+1 deal brokered in Geneva on the Iranian nuclear program, largely under the stewardship of Obama’s Secretary of State, John Kerry, in which Tehran won significant gains – both economic and political – in exchange for…well, not a lot.

Given how incomprehensibly favorable the terms seemed to be for Iran’s tyrannical theocracy, Steyn was almost charitable in admitting that the possible explanation might lie in the realm of the stupid rather than the sinister. He concedes— caustically: “Certainly, John Kerry has been unerringly wrong on every foreign policy issue for four decades, so sheer bungling stupidity cannot be ruled out.”

This is charitable because with the passage of time, there is accumulating evidence that a more ominous possibility may be emerging as increasingly and disturbingly plausible.

The Geneva accord is so perplexingly perturbing, its terms so tenuous, so vague, so equivocal, so given to conflicting interpretation, that even some of Obama’s most sycophantic apologists have found themselves expressing unprecedented heretical doubts as to the soundness of its rationale. Some like Harvard Law professor, Alan Dershowitz, have been stridently blunt in expressing their misgivings.

Others, such as Jeffrey Goldberg, unkindly designated by some as Obama’s court-journalist, seemed almost contritely embarrassed for doing so, promising to balance his commendably well-argued censure of the deal in “a coming post”, in which “I will do my best to represent…the compelling arguments to be made in favor of this deal”.

But more on that later.

The ‘taqiyya’ thing

For those unfamiliar with the term taqiyya in the title, a brief explanation: The notion of taqiyya and its significance have been extensively discussed in the literature on Islam, so clearly we cannot encompass the full scholarly debate here. Accordingly a highly compressed account will have to suffice.

Historically, the Koranic-sanctioned practice was first codified by minority Shia Muslims and refers to the dissemblance (i.e. the act of concealing or disguising) of their religious faith to protect themselves from the persecution from the more powerful Sunni Muslims.

However today, as the well-known scholar of Islam, Raymond Ibrahim, tells us: ‘Taqiyya is not as is often supposed, an exclusively Shi’ite phenomenon.” To make the point he cites Islamic studies professor Sami Mukaram, author of over twenty books on Islam: ‘Taqiyya is of fundamental importance in Islam. We can go so far as to say that the practice of taqiyya is mainstream in Islam. Taqiyya is very prevalent in Islamic politics, especially in the modern era.’ Thus, Ibrahim asserts that taqiyya has come to be “deployed not as dissimulation but as active deceit… deceit, which is doctrinally grounded in Islam, [and] often depicted as being equal—sometimes superior – to other universal military virtues, such as courage, fortitude, or self-sacrifice.’ 

Taqiyya (cont) 

Now, while I have no intention of engaging in the ideo-theological debate over the true significance and scope of taqiyya, in general, or the scholarly merits of Ibrahim’s widely quoted interpretation of it, in particular, one thing is indisputable: There is clearly a considerable body of opinion which holds that, in the modern era, taqiyya seems to have become a means not only to defend Islam against the infidels but to advance it among them—particularly in the West.

Indeed, in the public discourse the term has come to denote “active doctrinal deceit” not only for the purpose of preserving religious Islamic values but to advance political Islamic goals. It is in this sense that it has become commonly used in the ideo-political debate on Islam and the methods used to advance its objectives in the West.

It is in this sense I will refer to it here.

Of course, it would be unfair to imply that subterfuge is a purely Muslim stratagem. After all, it has been touted by non-Muslims for centuries. For example, over 2500 years ago, the ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu wrote: “All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive.”

Indeed even the Bible (Proverbs 24:6) prescribes that “By deception shall thy make war,” which for a while was the motto of Israel’s external intelligence service, Mossad.

However, in Islam, there seems to be a far greater doctrinal sanction for a wider, unabashed and overarching use of “active deceit” in contending with the infidel “other”— not so much in the interests of self-preservation among them, but of dominance over them.

Why ‘sheer stupidity’ is charitable

It is against the backdrop of the foregoing discussion that Steyn’s previously cited dilemma should be evaluated. For it provides the context to judge whether the Obama administration’s penchant for making America seem “harmless as an enemy and treacherous as a friend” is the result of “design or incompetence”; and a criterion for understanding why his assessment that “sheer bungling stupidity cannot be ruled out” tends to the charitable.

For as readers will recall from last week’s column, it is difficult to make sense of current US foreign policy unless we accept that, as Dinesh D’Souza, director of last year’s highest-grossing documentary, “2016: Obama’s America,” suggests: “Obama has no interest in weakening our adversaries while he does seem to have an interest in weakening our allies”. This is emerging as an increasingly plausible interpretation of the Obama-administration’s undisguised Islamo-philic propensities.

Of course the White House has been at pains—albeit not always spectacularly successful—to blur the nature of its true agenda. However, this endeavor is becoming increasing difficult to maintain, as a clear pattern emerges of intervention when this advances Islamist interests, and non-intervention when it does not. This is particularly true in the case of Israel, even more so in the wake of the P5+1 deal, which last week prompted Caroline Glick to charge: “The goal of Obama’s foreign policy is not to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power [but] to weaken the State of Israel.”

Indeed, the deal struck in Geneva is so implausible that is may actually prove to be a point of inflexion for many hitherto Obama disciples and a moment of revelation for them to grasp the ominous nature of his underlying political credo.

Dershowitz & the case for deliberate deception

It already sparked some uncharacteristic rumblings in usually Obama-supportive quarters.

Arguably, the most outspoken of these was Alan Dershowitz, who has authored several works with titles that begin with the words The Case for…. Indeed, Dershowitz was so scathing in his censure of the deal with the mullahs that one is tempted to wonder whether, in light of his vigorous rebukes, he might not be mulling over the possibility of a new book entitled: The Case for Deliberate Deception.

In weekend interviews immediately following the announcement he made the following acerbic assessment of its chances of success and the abilities of those who “cooked it up”: “When you do a risk-benefit analysis, the possibility that this will actually result in ending Iran’s nuclear weapons program is probably in the range of 10%…But when you weigh that against the 30 or 40% chance that they’re dead wrong–nuclear bomb wrong – then it’s a very bad assessment of risk and benefits…This is first-year negotiating theory, and this administration gets a D-minus with grade inflation” Elsewhere, he warned that the agreement “could turn out to be a cataclysmic error of gigantic proportions.” His concern was clearly reflected in an article he penned, warning that “This is not a liberal/conservative issue...

Indeed all reasonable, thinking people should understand that ..it is a prescription for disaster.” With evident exasperation, he asked: “Have we learned nothing from North Korea and Neville Chamberlain?” So if the Obama-administration’s policies appear immune to conventional reason and impervious to historical lessons, what could possibly explain its manner of conduct? Surely, then, the case for deliberate deception should not be discounted? Surely, the lawyer in Dershowitz would agree?

Is revolt brewing in the court?

Perhaps one of the most intriguing sources of criticism of the Iranian deal was none other than Jeffrey Goldberg, rumored to be among the journalists with the closest relations to the White House, at times even acting as a mouthpiece to convey messages on its behalf to the public.

It is, therefore, hugely significant that he, of all people, would produce a stingingly skeptical review of the accord.

In his very astute (seriously) “Six Reasons to Worry About the Iranian Nuclear Deal”, posted Wednesday on Bloomberg, Goldberg gives a masterful (seriously) critique of the agreement’s fatal weaknesses, which virtually ensure its calamitous failure—unless of course for the authors of the deal, failure is a not calamity, but an objective.

Here is a synopsis of Goldberg’s analysis and concerns:

1. The deal isn’t done…nothing was actually signed. The deal is not, as of this moment, even operational.

2. Momentum for sanctions is waning…many nations, many companies and the Iranians themselves are seeing this agreement as the beginning of the end of the sanctions regime.

3. The (still unenforced) document agreed upon in Geneva promises Iran an eventual exit from nuclear monitoring… This is not a comforting idea.

4. The biggest concession to the Iranians might have already been made… Essentially, Obama’s administration has already conceded, before the main round of negotiations, that Iran is going to end up with the right to enrich.

5. The Geneva agreement only makes the most elliptical references to two indispensable components of any nuclear- weapons program…Iran is free, in the coming sixmonth period…to do whatever it pleases on missiles and warhead development.

6. The Iranians are so close to reaching the nuclear threshold anyway—that freezing in place much of the nuclear program seems increasingly futile.

Was this really what well-meaning, gullible American Jews had in mind, when persuaded by Obama’s pledge that “I have Israel’s back,” they gave him their support— both at the ballot and the bank?

Think ‘taqiyya’

The Obama administration has been disingenuous in portraying virtually every element of the deal with Iran – from its (non)compliance with half a dozen UN resolutions, to its stipulations regarding the right to enrich.

The accord will have far-reaching geo-political and geostrategic implications for the region—and well beyond.

Whether these will result in a clustering of pliant client- states around a nuclear-armed theo-tyrannical Islamist hegemon, or in a spiraling pan-regional arms race, with Sunni Arabs and Turks scrambling to develop—or purchase— their own non-conventional capabilities to match that of the Shia Persians, the consequences will be bleak— especially for Israel.

For whatever the outcome, it is likely to find itself facing a greatly empowered Islamic menace with a nuclear veto on any coercive action it may wish to undertake to ensure its security from external threats (e.g. Hezbollah) or domestic law-and-order (e.g quelling rebellion in the Galilee or Negev).

So much for “having Israel’s back.

So for anyone struggling to make sense out of all this seemingly inexplicable confusion, here’s some advice: Think taqiyya—and the pieces will all fall into place.


DECEMBER 6, 2013 

The Lebanon Daily Star reported last month:
BEIRUT: Residents and fighters fear they may be starved out of the Damascus suburb of Yarmouk as the siege of the Palestinian area approaches its fifth month, mirroring the increasingly desperate humanitarian situation in many of the capital’s suburbs. The relatively new practice of blockading neighborhoods reflects a shifting strategy among rebel and government forces, analysts say, as both sides hunker down for what is expected to be a long war of attrition.
Yarmouk was originally a camp for Syria’s Palestinian refugees but has since expanded into a sprawling neighborhood in Damascus’ rebel-held southern belt. It has been encircled by troops loyal to President Bashar Assad since February.
On the second day of Ramadan, July 10, government forces tightened their grip on the area and sealed off a checkpoint that was the area’s only gateway to the capital, which was previously only sporadically open to allow through aid and fleeing residents.
The movement of food, medicine and people came to a complete halt.
“Civilians are totally forbidden from going out of the camp. At the same time, no food is coming in. They [the soldiers] have refused to let in vaccines for polio, measles, chickenpox and flu,” said Abdullah, an activist who has been stuck inside the neighborhood for over a year.
That siege is now 139 days old.
While the world constantly hears about a “siege” on Gaza, where there are no restrictions by Israel on fuel, medicine,food, or hundreds of other items,and where hundreds of people enter and leave every week, no one is talking about the real siege of tens of thousands of people in Yarmouk, which is now on day 139.
Similarly, the death toll of Palestinians in Syria has now reached 1,781, the vast majority of whom are civilians. But there is no Goldstone Report about this. No UN resolutions about Palestinians in Syria. No special sessions of the Security Council, nothing at the UN Human Rights Council, and very little in the media. No political Christmas carols being sung outside Syrian embassies.
I’m sure there is a rational explanation for why the “pro-Palestinian” crowd is exerting so much little effort on helping Palestinians literally starving to death.
And it probably has to do with the fact that they aren’t “pro-Palestinian” at all.

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

IS THE US CHANGING SIDES IN THE REGIONAL CONFLICT BETWEEN IRAN AND ITS ENEMIES? JONATHAN SPYER Jerusalem Post 12-4-13







IS THE US CHANGING SIDES IN THE REGIONAL CONFLICT BETWEEN IRAN AND ITS ENEMIES? 


  JONATHAN SPYER Jerusalem Post  12-4-13



   
Even before any comprehensive agreement was reached on the nuclear file, Washington appears to have begun to dismantle the carefully assembled diplomatic structure seeking to contain Iranian regional ambitions.



A report by respected Washington-based journalist Hussein Abdul Hussein in the Kuwaiti Al-Rai newspaper this week revealed details of an indirect US channel with Hezbollah.

The report comes, of course, close on the heels of the interim agreement concluded in Geneva between the P5 + 1 world powers and Iran, allowing the latter to continue to enrich uranium.

News items are also surfacing suggesting a stark split between the US and Saudi Arabia over regional policy in general, and policy toward Syria in particular. Saudi officials are going on the record expressing their alarm at the direction of American policy.

Happily stirring the pot, some Iran-associated outlets have suggested that Washington is actively seeking to rein in Saudi intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan, who favors a hardline against Iranian interference in the region.

Meanwhile, agreement has now been reached over the long-postponed “Geneva 2” conference, to discuss the war in Syria.

The conference will go ahead because US-backed Syrian opposition representatives abandoned their demand that President Bashar Assad could have no part in any transitional phase of government in the country.

What does all this add up to? There are an increasing number of voices which perceive a shape behind all these details: Namely, an effort by the current US administration to turn the Iranian regime from an adversary into a partner. The method: Acceding, in part or whole, to key Iranian demands.

Let’s take a look at each item in more detail.

The usually reliable Abdul Hussein’s report details the mechanism by which the US is speaking to Hezbollah, in spite of that organization being a US-designated terrorist group. British diplomats are the ones doing the talking.

The channel of communication between UK officials and the “political wing” of the movement was recently revived, in tune with the improving relations between London and Tehran.

It is now serving to transfer messages between Washington and Tehran.

An unnamed diplomatic source quoted by Abdul Hussein explained that this dialogue is “designed to keep pace with the changes in the region and the world, and the potential return of Iran to the international community.”

The official went on to explain that because the US does not concur with the (British, entirely fictitious) division of Hezbollah into “political” and “military” wings, direct dialogue is currently not possible.

The report goes on to outline moments in recent months when the US has found itself on the same page as Hezbollah. One of these, very notably, was the occasion in June when the Lebanese Army, together with Hezbollah fighters, fought against the partisans of the pro al-Qaida Salafi preacher Ahmad al-Assir in the Lebanese town of Sidon. The US backed the army, without reference to the key role played by Hezbollah fighters in the action, which resulted in al-Assir’s defeat.

The other was the US condemnation of the recent al-Qaida-linked bombing at the Iranian Embassy in Beirut. The condemnation, well-noted in Lebanon, did not contain any reference to the presence of Iranian and Hezbollah fighters in Syria.

The Abdul Hussein report also tells us the US “outreach” to Iran has not been on the nuclear file alone. Rather, even before any comprehensive agreement was reached, Washington appears to have begun to dismantle the carefully assembled diplomatic structure seeking to contain Iranian regional ambitions.

Even Tehran’s proxy Hezbollah, which killed 241 US Marines in Beirut in 1983, is evidently now a fit subject for communication, as part of Iran’s return to the international community.

Reports suggesting American efforts to contain Bandar are somewhat less reliable, coming as they do from pro-Iran and pro-Hezbollah media outlets (al-Manar and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards-associated Fars News Agency). But certainly, the deep Saudi frustrations with the direction of US policy are not an invention of pro-Iran propagandists.

Nawaf Obaid, a senior adviser to the Saudi royal family, this week accused Washington of deceiving Riyadh over the Iran nuclear deal. “We were lied to, things were hidden from us,” Obaid told an audience in London, as quoted in The Daily Telegraph. He went on to vow continued Saudi resistance to Iranian machinations across the region. In particular, he expressed Saudi determination to turn back the Iranians in Syria.

“We cannot accept Revolutionary Guards running around Homs,” the adviser said. But this defiant tone appears in stark contrast to the developing US position. 

The Geneva 2 conference is now scheduled to take place on January 22. It is a US-sponsored affair. It is not yet clear if Iran itself will be there. But what is clear is that the conference will take place entirely according to the agenda of the Assad regime and its backers.

That is – the US-backed Syrian National Coalition will directly face the regime, while the regime now flatly rejects any notion of its stepping down.

In a statement issued on Wednesday, humming with the old Ba’athist rhetoric, the Syrian Foreign Ministry said, “The official Syrian delegation is not going to Geneva to surrender power… The age of colonialism, with the installation and toppling of governments, is over. They must wake from their dreams.”

The armed rebels will not be sending representatives to the conference.

They, financed and armed by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have formed a new “Islamic Front” that is battling the regime around Damascus, in Aleppo and in the border region of Qalamoun this week. The military advantage continues to ebb and flow.

But the stark contrast between the US-led diplomacy and the events on the ground is another clear reminder of the extent to which Washington’s position has moved away from confrontation, away from Riyadh – and toward Tehran.

Assad has revived his fortunes in the course of 2013, mainly because of the massive Iranian assistance he has received. Washington, which officially backs the opposition, appears to be sponsoring a conference which will crown this achievement.

So is the US in fact changing sides in the contest between Iran and those regional forces seeking to contain and turn back its advance? 

Michael Doran of the Brookings Institute suggested this week that Washington is in the first phase of seeking a “strategic partnership” with Iran, an “entente cordiale” which would see a US-Iranian alliance forming a lynchpin of regional stability.

If this is truly what the welter of evidence detailed above portends, then the Middle East is headed into a dangerous period indeed. As Doran also notes, there is no reason at all to think that Iranian designs for regional hegemony have been abandoned.

The effect of US overtures to Tehran and undermining of allies will be to build the Iranians’ appetite. This will serve to intensify their continued efforts at expansion.

The corresponding efforts by other regional powers, Israel and Saudi Arabia chief among them, to resist this process will also increase.

That, in turn, is likely to mean greater instability across the region – and an eventual direct collision could result.


Sunday, December 1, 2013

IRAN IS HAPPY. NEXT UP: THE PALESTINIANS RICHARD BAEHR 12-2-13




IRAN IS HAPPY. NEXT UP: THE PALESTINIANS
 RICHARD BAEHR 12-2-13


In the inverted worldview of President Barack Obama, the problem with Iran's nuclear program was most of all that Israel threatened to attack it. Such an event would have been a catastrophe for Obama, who has been "outreaching" to Iran for the entirety of his term, and negotiating with the Iranian regime behind the backs of all of America's presumed allies for more than a year. With a complete drawdown of U.S. forces from Iraq accomplished, and one in Afghanistan near complete, a new broader conflict in the region that an Israeli attack might precipitate, drawing Americans back into the fighting, had to be prevented.
The deal announced last week in Geneva backtracks on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty agreement that Iran has signed, and a multitude of U.N. Security Council resolutions that prohibited Iran from enriching uranium. The agreement will not prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, and at most will extend the so-called "breakout period" by a few weeks. In the term of the agreement, nothing prevents Iran from continuing to enrich uranium, no enriched uranium will leave the country, none of the near 20,000 centrifuges will be disabled or destroyed, and nothing will prevent Iran from further steps at weaponizing their nuclear program at locations in Iran the P5+1 nations do not know about and hence, will not inspect. Coupled with sanctions relief, and a new rush by foreign companies lining up to be first to invest in the "new no longer toxic Iran," it is a very good deal for Iran. Al Arabiya is reporting that a joint Iranian-United States chamber of commerce is in the works, as well as the possible resumption of airline service between the two countries. What is next? Will President Hassan Rouhani be invited to sit with the first lady for the State of the Union address, and asked to take a bow?
One might think that a deal that is so overwhelmingly favorable for Iran -- ending their international isolation, granting billions of dollars in sanctions relief, protecting their rights and their nuclear program -- would be seen as a bad deal in the United States. But for Obama, it is a good deal as well, because it makes it a near certainty that Israel will not strike at Iran during the six-month period of the initial agreement.
That six-month period, we learned this week, has not even begun, since there are "details" still to be worked out between the parties, or in reality more concessions Irandemands before signing a real agreement . A State Department spokesperson estimated this week that maybe the six-month clock would start running in January, meaning that Iran bought itself two more months with no restrictions whatever on its nuclear activities (and no new sanctions), and at least eight months in total without fear of Israeli action, and almost certainly no new American sanctions as well.
Other parts of the supposed historic agreement were also unraveling, as U.S. officials agreed that the shutdown of activity at the Arak heavy water facility was not so complete. And of course, since lying has become so endemic with this White House, the denials by John Kerry that the P5+1 had granted any enrichment rights to Iran, completely collapsed, as the language of the agreement revealed that those rights were enshrined in the agreement, details to follow.
Just in case Israel had not gotten the message, or if any Israelis were foolish to even entertain the notion that they retained any free will in the matter, Britain's Foreign Secretary William Hague made it quite clear this week that such independence would be frowned upon.
"We would discourage anybody in the world, including Israel, from taking any steps that would undermine this agreement and we will make that very clear to all concerned," Hague told parliament, as he noted that Britain would be "on guard." Britain, along with the United States, have now become the protectors of Iran's nuclear program. This is not an agreement designed to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, nor the beginning of a policy of containment once they do, but a welcome wagon to the nuclear club though a Western security blanket.
All presidents are concerned with their legacy, and how they will be judged by historians. No president, however, seems to have been as fiercely committed to his legacy as Obama, since he was trying to define it at a time before he was even nominated in 2008! That legacy, as laid out to an audience of several hundred thousand breathless and politically intoxicated Berliners in June 2008 included such glorious achievements as the planet (Gaia?) starting to heal, and the oceans no longer rising. It was promises such as these that enabled the solons in Oslo to decide to award the Nobel Peace Prize to Obama even before he took office, which also seemed to "jump the gun," so to speak.
On a policy level closer to that of mere mortals, Obama has focused most on two policy objectives -- one domestic, one foreign. The domestic objective was to bring America closer to providing universal health insurance. The Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) passed in early 2010 on a strict party-line vote was the magic elixir designed to achieve the president's domestic goal. Unfortunately, the extraordinary executive branch incompetence on display since the enrollment process began in October and the repeated lies about the impact of the legislation (revealed once millions of Americans started receiving cancellation notices from their insurance companies), have been a severe embarrassment to the White House, such that the president's approval ratings have dropped to 40%, their lowest level since he took office.
It is becoming increasingly clear, that Iran has been an obsessive focus of the administration from the beginning and that the administration's goal was not to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, but rather to end its international isolation and create a new American-Iranian rapprochement . Lee Smith summarizes what has occurred this way:
"The interim deal makes official what Obama has long been pursuing -- a strategic realignment integrating Iran into a multipolar Middle East, where once-traditional American allies will no longer enjoy a privileged relationship with Washington. The signs pointing to Obama's new configuration, downgrading Saudi Arabia and Israel and upgrading Iran, have long been apparent, if incredible."
That Iran might obtain nuclear weapons was a secondary issue, if a concern at all. After all, in a fairer world, if Israel had nuclear weapons, why shouldn't Iran, a far larger and more important nation on the world stage (one of the seven world powers, John Kerry supposedly assured his Iranian interlocutors last weekend)?
Obama called Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after the deal was reached with Iran last Saturday night, but rather than trying to reassure the Israelis, the president's message seems to have been that Netanyahu should stop whining about it, since Israeli unhappiness with the deal makes life more difficult for Obama with Congress.
American relations with Israel during the Obama years have been on two tracks -- stopping Iran from going nuclear (Israel's desire), and forcing an agreement between Israel and the Palestinians (Obama's desire). With Israel visibly unhappy with the American deal with Iran, what does it signal for the Israeli-Palestinian track? Jonathan Freeland, the resident Israel-basher at The Guardian, thinks now is the time for Obama to ratchet up the pressure on Israel to finally get a deal done with the Palestinians. Freeland, his paper, The New York Times, Obama himself, and the other "great minds" with whom the president discusses grand strategy -- Valerie Jarrett, Tom Friedman, and David Ignatius among them -- are all convinced that nothing has prevented a deal in the past except for Israeli intransigence (which some of them can even spell), and Israeli settlement policy. The time has come for one more attempt to break Israel's back (all for Israel's own good, of course, as the encouragers of backbreaking will argue).
I think the expectation that Obama will give Israel time to salve its wounds is misguided. This is a president who came to office determined to weaken the influence of the pro-Israel community, and "rebalance" Israel's relationship with its neighbors, Iran and the Palestinians. Rebalancing of course, can be defined here as weakening Israel's strategic position, since Israel's relative strength is perceived to be unfair and some of its power (and wealth) needs to be redistributed.
The president, a narcissist to the end, may think he is on a roll in the Middle East. His press clippings are certainly better these days on this front than for his health care reform. So with a bit of momentum, he may well think now is the time for him to slam down the hammer on the so-called "peace process," or rather, slam it down once again on Israel. And if he needs a workman to do the job, he can count on John Kerry, who, once again, will be "reporting for duty."


Why Obama’s Iran Nuke Deal Is a Good Thing
November 25, 2013 by Daniel Greenfield