Defense Minister Ehud Barak : 'We won't outsource our fate, not even to our closest allies' 

 SECTION CONCERNING   ISRAEL ,IRAN AND THE US      9-25-12

In exclusive interview with Israel Hayom, Defense Minister Ehud Barak adds important new component to the "all options are on the table" mantra: "And we expect everyone else to prepare for it" • The option of containment is not on the table. "Israel cannot rely on the world, or on the U.S. in particular, to stop Iran's nuclear aspirations, even if it is clear to all that action is required."

Yoav Limor and Shlomo Cesa

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 SECTION CONCERNING   ISRAEL ,IRAN AND THE US

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We cannot delegate responsibility

On the eve of Rosh Hashanah, in an interview with Israel Hayom, the prime minister asked "what if the U.S. fails to take action against Iran?" The defense minister insists that on this issue he is united with the prime minister. He stresses that Israel cannot entirely rely on the world, or on the U.S. in particular, to stop Iran's nuclear aspirations, even if it is clear to all that action is required.

"I hope the world voices opposition and refuses to allow Iran to gain nuclear capability under any circumstances. Can we count on it 100 percent? I say we can't."

"We always say that when it comes down to it, the responsibility for decisions pertaining to the future and security of the State of Israel, like decisions on Iran's nuclear program, are ours alone. We cannot delegate responsibility, not even to our closest and most trusted allies, and the U.S. is our closest and most trusted ally."

"This issue is the Israeli leadership's top priority national responsibility. I know that the Americans recognize that this is our position, and they respect it."

"Important people in the country have been telling me 'ye of little faith, why don't you count on this person or that person or the other person? If anything happens with Iran that necessitates action, they will obviously take action!' To this I say 'nothing is obvious.'"

Q: The Americans believe in sanctions. Are there any more sanctions that could possibly prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons?

"Clearly we would like to see tougher sanctions, which are already at an unprecedented level. The sanctions do have an effect, to a certain degree, but I don't see them bending the will of Iran's leadership. There is room to make them harsher. It is vastly important to ensure that the sanctions are enforced. The Russians and the Chinese need to be brought on board, so that they do not remain where they are now. Will all this succeed in swaying Iran? I personally don't believe it will be enough."

Q: Ultimately, will a military strike be unavoidable?

"I am usually careful not make statements of this kind. We would be very pleased to wake up one morning and see that the Iranians have finally gotten it and abandoned their nuclear program. But clearly that is not a realistic scenario."

"I won't be sad if the Americans decide that they need to take action due to their own considerations and enacting their own responsibility. We won't stop them, obviously. When we say that all the options are on the table and that we expect everyone concerned to prepare for it - we mean it. I think that says it all. I also think that the Americans have extraordinary capability in this field. But we rely first and foremost on ourselves."

Barak praised the U.S. Senate's recent approval of more serious action against Iran, saying that this was "an important, encouraging step" and that it would shape the policy of this president, should he be reelected, or another president if he gets elected. He says that the U.S.'s responsibility is to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear capability, as it has explicitly stated, and to use all the available means to achieve that end, even if it involves use of force.

Differences are being externalized

This week, Barak visited New York and met with senior U.S. officials, including Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, formerly chief of staff and still a close friend to U.S. President Barack Obama. Barak told them that Netanyahu has no designs on influencing the fierce presidential race currently underway in the U.S., and that his stance on Iran is real and reflects Israel's position. Barak remarked that the tensions between Israel and the Americans as they are portrayed in the media are greatly exaggerated. "There are certain differences of opinion between us and the U.S. that have been externalized somewhat. That's okay. We are working toward reaching understandings with the Americans."

Regarding the rumored spat between Barak and Netanyahu, he says that "the prime minister and I see eye to eye on the Iranian issue. As the Americans say, there is no daylight between us.

Q: To what degree is Washington angry with us, did you find?

"I don't think that the media representation of disputes, as they exist between us and the Americans or as they exist between us and ourselves, reflects reality. Closed door conversations with the Americans are practical and purposeful."

"We maintain regular contact with the most senior echelons in the U.S. — both in the White House and in the Pentagon. As Yom Kippur approaches, we must raise our gaze and look a year into the past and a year into the future. We need to see that when it comes to intelligence, we are in complete agreement. The same is true about our general intentions. We subscribe to the same rhetoric. We and the Americans are saying the same thing: A nuclear Iran is unacceptable.

"We are determined to prevent Iran from becoming nuclear. All the options are on the table, except for the option of containment. We agree on the end goal. What do we disagree on? On the methods of achieving this goal there are certain gaps. In my opinion, these gaps are smaller than they appear from the outside, but they are not insignificant, and that is the topic of our conversations."

"So we are talking to the Americans, about timetables too. We adhere to a different clock than the U.S. because, though we agree that the Iranians are determined to develop nuclear weapons, no order has been given yet to actually build a bomb. But we think that the reason no such order has been given is that this order, or its reflection in Iran's nuclear program, will become known to us, to the Americans and to others and they are afraid that it will elicit action. Action will push them backwards."

"That is why they are first striving to get to a point where they are convincingly protected, in their opinion, from a surgical Israeli attack, and possibly even an American attack. Once that is achieved, they will consider how to proceed."

"The clock is ticking differently because the options we have for actions are more limited than those of the Americans. Israel doesn't have some of the resources that the U.S. has. Therefore, from our standpoint, when the Iranians dig even deeper and build even more fortified facilities and amass more centrifuges, they are posing more immediate obstacles for us than for the U.S. That is the whole story."

"We know from the most recent International Atomic Energy Agency report that the Iranians are still enriching uranium to 20%. It is true that they are using some of that enriched material in the research facility, but they are continuing to progress. It's all there in the IAEA report."

Q: And what if the Americans don't take action in the end?

"The questions are — what scenario will prompt them to consider action? What scenarios will prompt us to consider action? What are the differences between the scenarios? What is the significance? I wish to reiterate: It is best if these discussions are held behind closed doors. That is where they are in fact held. I, too, hold these types of meetings on behalf of the prime minister, and I am not the only one."

Q: Up until several weeks ago the general sense was that we were on the brink of war. It seems that things have calmed down somewhat. Has anything happened that we should know about? Even your own public remarks have become more moderate.

"Nothing has changed about my public remarks. Not a thing. The prime minister and I have been saying the same things, and we cling to our argument: It won't be a matter of weeks, but it will also not be a matter of years. It is important that the Iranians know these things.

Q: Has your relationship with Netanyahu deteriorated? You have recently made divergent statements on Iran, the U.S., the budget and other issues.

"The Prime Minister and I see eye to eye on the Iranian issue. We are not alone in this, either. There are also Lieberman and other friends. When necessary, the prime ministers involves even more cabinet ministers. On other issues, my opinions differ from most of the cabinet members' and possibly from the prime minister's as well, like on the urgency of the peace process with the Palestinians and on economic issues."

"But make no mistake: Netanyahu is the prime minister and I am familiar with the responsibility he shoulders as such. I was prime minister myself in the past, and there were many ministers who felt differently and came out and said it on multiple occasions.

Q: Can you identify any efforts to meddle in U.S. politics in Netanyahu's conduct?

"I communicated a very clear message during my meetings in Washington this week: The prime minister means what he says about Iran. He is voicing the official stance of the State of Israel, not his own personal opinion. There is no ulterior motive behind these statements. No effort to intervene in any U.S. election process. The support from both sides of the House, and especially from the American people, is an asset to Israel, because the U.S. is our most important ally. There is extraordinary intelligence cooperation and defense commitment between us. We should maintain it and preserve it.

Being worthy of the sacrifice

Q: Again, to conclude, on Yom Kippur eve, what lessons did you learn from that war that changed the face of the region?

"The commitment to never let it happen again and to ensure that the State of Israel really is worthy of the sacrifice made by those who died. I was the head of Military Intelligence and our entire generation has the need to prevent surprise attacks and to create deterrence. Today I look at the long way the intelligence branch has come since then, at the inefficiency of the sheer firepower of then versus the precision of today, and I see the most important lesson: We must not fall into diplomatic blindness. We can't fall into a specific notion about our military capability or our intelligence."

"There has to be honest and direct communications between the different branches, and we must always be open and attentive to the details of what is happening around us. Never put our heads in the sand. Never ignore threats, but also never operate on the assumption that the worst could happen — this could paralyze the entire nation."

Q: What are the odds that we will be caught off guard?

"History does not repeat itself, so the possibility that we will be caught off guard with a surprise attack of 1.5 million soldiers charging at us from two fronts simultaneously, is slim. But when you look at the events in the Middle East over the last two years you realize that other things could happen. They could really happen."

"I have learned three main lessons from the developments of the last two years. First of all, we have to be humble when it comes to our abilities to predict the future. Look at Egypt, for example. The second lesson, which only becomes more poignant when you examine the world's reaction to what is happening in Syria, is that there is a gap between 'said' and 'did'. No intelligence gathering is necessary to verify the atrocities taking place there. You can see on television how the bulldozers dig long ditches and bodies of women and children are buried in mass graves. Helicopters attack civilians. Everyone says 'this cannot be allowed to happen' but no action is taken."

"The third lesson is that not everything that happens in the Middle East is a direct product of our conflict with the Palestinians. There are historical events that are bigger than us, and we need to conduct ourselves within them to ensure our future. It is mainly in our own hands."