The near future of US-Israeli relations. Some notes of speculation  and musings   11-9-12

 On Thursday,November 8, 2012, Independence Party Chairman and Defense Minister Ehud Barak addressed the forecasts of a rocky future relationship between Netanyahu and Obama, saying that "the personal issues carry some weight, but ultimately it is national interests that count. I have spent time with Obama one on one and he is a calculated man who can exercise self control."

On two major issues — the Iranian threat and the Palestinian issue — Netanyahu has shaped the national agenda, and in at least the Iranian issue, his agenda was subsequently adopted by the international community. All you have to do is look at Netanyahu's most recent visit to Paris and listen to what French President François Hollande said: no to a nuclear Iran; no to preconditions in negotiations with the Palestinians (Netanyahu's main stance, which was rejected by Hollande's predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy).

The diplomatic chasm remains deep. Obama thinks that there is time for dialogue with Iran, alongside sanctions. Netanyahu  thinks this is a dangerous process by which the Iranians are buying time, fooling the world and all the while enriching uranium and fast approaching the point of no return. The prime minister is holding on to the knowledge that the U.S. understands that Israel can take independent action to defend itself, and "instead of begging, I'm preparing," as Netanyahu said.

Netanyahu's government and Obama's administration face two major issues that will have to be decided even before the general elections in Israel: the first is the unilateral Palestinian request for an upgrade in their U.N. status, expected to take place at the end of the month. The other is the negotiations between Iran and the six world powers, expected to resume within a number of weeks. Senior Israeli officials stressed that in the U.S., Israel's interests are an issue that crosses the party divide and it makes no difference whether a Democrat or a Republican is in the White House. This has been proven by history, and if that is not enough, there is also the fact that there is a Republican majority in  the House of Representatives.

(Though Congress doesn't make foreign policy decisions, it does need to approve the president's budget, and these things are tied up in a delicate balance.)