Washington Diary: Worry About Hagel-Out, Worry About Kerry- In 

 SHMUEL ROSNER  March 6, 2013

****EXERPT--2nd half of article*****Jewish Journal of Los Angeles

Here's a list of reasons for the Israeli government to worry about Kerry (a list compiled with the help of Washington operatives, congressional sources and diplomatic veterans in recent days):

1. He seems to believe that there's an opening- that an investment in the peace process will bear fruit- and the President seems willing to let him try to make it happen.

2. His ego is as big as they come, and Kerry believes that all Israelis and Palestinians were waiting for is for a man like himself to come to the rescue.

3. Since the Obama team will control all the more important matters, Kerry is going to need something of substance to work on that is of lesser importance to the WH.

4. It's of lesser importance, but the newspapers love it - taking care of a peace process will make Kerry visible and popular with the media.

5. He was never a huge fan of the Bibi school of thought, and picking a fight with him over settlements would be natural.

6. Kerry wasn't even happy about the security barrier in the West Bank, and the settlements truly make him angry.

7. Since he isn't likely to run for President again, the achievement he can still hope for is a Nobel Peace Prize. Obama already got one, so the next one can go to Kerry without having to worry about the President getting it first.

"If there's going to be trouble, it will be Kerry, not Hagel", one Washington veteran told me. After the (quiet and successful) Obama trip is over, the time for Kerry to step in will arrive. Israel will have a new government, presumably one which is more concerned about domestic affairs than about the peace process, and the Kerry team will have four full years to nudge it - and the Palestinians - towards making progress. One problem for him might be the different timetable that Israel envisions for making any progress. As Defense Minister Barak stressed at his AIPAC speech earlier this week, Israel doesn't really believe in final status negotiations at this point in time. Incremental steps are the goal, but no one is going to get a Nobel Prize for 'incrementalism'. Besides, when Washington gets "incremental" from Bibi, it hears 'delay', 'abstraction', 'never'.

Kerry had a surprise meeting with Palestinian President Abbas last week. This was the beginning of his long journey in the treacherous waters of Israeli-Palestinian peace making, but surely not the end. If Israel will have a government based on settler-friendly Habait Hayehudi, though, it's hard to see how any concessions on settlements could be offered to Kerry. If Netanyahu decides to send Habait Hayehudi to the opposition and base his coalition on centrist Yesh Atid and the Haredi parties - ready for revenge and currently less sympathetic towards the settlements – his government will quickly face political instability.

Of course, many things can still save Netanyahu and Israel (and the Palestinians) from Kerry's overly ambitious activism: it could be Iran, Syria, or Dennis Rodman for that matter - other events that will keep him too busy to be investing in a cause that deluded so many before him. Or he can be saved by doing the un-Kerry thing: going small, modest, forgetting about big breakthroughs and aiming low. Incremental steps for Israel and the Palestinians, incremental steps for the Secretary.